CBO's February 2026 baseline projects the annual deficit — from — in FY 2026 to — in FY 2036, while debt held by the public — from — of GDP to —.
Fiscal years. FY 2025 is actual; FY 2026–2036 are CBO projections under current law.
Deficit, FY 2026
— billion
— vs FY 2025 actual · — of GDP
Cumulative deficits, FY 2027–2036
— billion
— of it in the first five years
Debt held by the public, FY 2036
— of GDP
— since FY 2025 · —
Net interest, FY 2036
— billion
— vs FY 2026 · — of GDP
Total federal outlays and revenues. The shaded gap is the annual deficit.
How far outlays exceed revenues each year.
Outlays by category. Mandatory covers Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other programs set by law rather than annual appropriations.
Revenues by source. Customs duties roughly double between FY 2025 and FY 2026, reflecting tariffs imposed during 2025.
Interest on the debt closes in on everything Congress appropriates each year, defense and nondefense combined.
Debt at the end of each fiscal year. As a share of GDP it is debt divided by that year's GDP.
The table follows the unit picked above. Cumulative columns are shown in dollars only.
| $ billions | FY25 (actual) | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 | FY36 | FY27–31 | FY27–36 |
|---|
| % of GDP | FY25 (actual) | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 | FY36 |
|---|
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026), as compiled in the attached overview file. Figures are nominal dollars in billions by federal fiscal year (October–September).
A baseline is not a forecast of policy. It assumes current law stays in place, so it does not account for legislation enacted after CBO finished its projections.
Percent-of-GDP figures for outlays, revenues and deficits are CBO's own, rounded to one decimal. Debt as a share of GDP is calculated here from the file's debt and GDP rows.
— take — of federal spending in FY 2025, — — by FY 2036. Everything else the government does fits in the remaining —.
Share of total federal outlays. The five largest items in FY 2025 are tracked across every year. Medicare is net of premiums; defense is all defense discretionary spending. Nondefense discretionary spending isn't ranked as a single item because it bundles thousands of separate programs.
Mandatory programs and net interest, the spending that goes out without an annual vote in Congress, — from — of federal outlays in FY 2025 to — in FY 2036.
Each group's share of total federal outlays. FY 2025 is actual; later years are CBO projections.
Social Security, FY 2036
—
of outlays, from — in FY 2025
Major health care programs, FY 2036
—
of outlays, from — in FY 2025
Net interest, FY 2036
—
of outlays, vs. — for defense
Set by annual appropriations, FY 2036
—
of outlays, from — in FY 2025
Share of total outlays by group. Other mandatory includes offsetting receipts such as Medicare premiums, which reduce it.
Mandatory spending and net interest flow without new legislation. Discretionary spending is the part Congress sets each year.
As given in the file. Offsetting receipts are negative because they reduce outlays.
| % of outlays | FY25 (actual) | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 | FY36 | FY27–36 |
|---|
Group shares are calculated from CBO's dollar figures in the attached file. Social Security is Old-Age and Survivors Insurance plus Disability Insurance. Major health care is Medicare, Medicaid, premium tax credits and CHIP, before Medicare premiums and other offsetting receipts.
The file's own summary row for Social Security (19.7% in FY 2025) doesn't match its program rows, which add up to 22.5%. Its "Other" row is off by the same amount in the other direction. The charts here use the program rows instead. The file's "Autopilot" and "Subject to Congressional Appropriation" rows do match and agree with the figures here.
Total federal outlays go from — of GDP in FY 2025 to — in FY 2036. The largest increase comes from —, up — points of GDP.
Outlays measured against the size of the economy. FY 2025 is actual; later years are CBO projections.
The top of each bar is total outlays as a share of GDP.
Change in each group's share of GDP, FY 2025 to FY 2036, in percentage points.
As given in the file, rounded to one decimal, so small programs show as 0.0%.
| % of GDP | FY25 (actual) | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 | FY36 |
|---|
Group figures are calculated from CBO's dollar figures and the GDP row in the attached file, using the same groups as the share-of-total-spending view. The program table shows the file's own percentages.
The file's column header says "percentage of all federal spending," but its numbers are percentages of GDP. Total outlays, for example, read 23.1% in FY 2025, which is outlays divided by GDP.
Over the next 30 years, federal revenues — from — of GDP in FY 2026 to — in FY 2056. Individual income taxes go from — to —, while customs duties go from — to —. Spending goes from — to — over the same years.
FY 2025 is actual, from the 10-year baseline file; FY 2026–2056 are CBO's long-term projections under current law.
Revenues, FY 2056
— of GDP
from — in FY 2026
Individual income taxes' share of revenue, FY 2056
—
from — in FY 2026
Customs duties, FY 2026
— billion
vs. — in FY 2025 (actual)
Growth as a share of GDP, FY 2026–2056
— revenues
vs. — for spending
Each source as a percent of GDP. Individual income taxes climb as rising incomes push more earnings into higher brackets; payroll taxes hold steady.
Each source's share of total federal revenue. Individual income taxes carry a growing share of the load.
Customs duties in billions of dollars. They roughly double in FY 2026, stay near $380–425 billion through the mid-2030s, then grow slowly with the economy. As a share of GDP they fall from 1.3% to 0.7%.
Both as a percent of GDP. The shaded gap is the deficit.
| Year | Individual income | Payroll | Corporate income | Customs duties | Other | Total revenues |
|---|
| Year | Individual income | Payroll | Corporate income | Customs duties | Other | Total revenues |
|---|
FY 2025 actuals come from the 10-year baseline overview file. FY 2026–2056 come from the long-term outlook file, which reports dollars rounded to the nearest billion, so FY 2026 figures here can differ from the Overview tab by a few hundred million dollars.
Each source's share of total revenue is calculated here from the dollar figures. "Other" includes excise taxes, estate and gift taxes, Federal Reserve remittances and miscellaneous fees.
Over the past 50 years (FY —–—), federal revenues averaged — of GDP and outlays —. CBO projects revenues of — and outlays of — in FY 2056, with debt held by the public at — of GDP against a 50-year average of —.
Actual years from CBO's historical budget data; projected years from CBO's long-term outlook. Dashed lines on charts throughout the dashboard mark 50-year averages.
Outlays, FY 2056
— of GDP
50-year average: — · —
Revenues, FY 2056
— of GDP
50-year average: — · —
Net interest, FY 2056
— of GDP
50-year average: — · —
Debt held by the public, FY 2056
— of GDP
50-year average: — · —
Actual through FY 2025, then CBO's projections. Dashed lines are 50-year averages.
End of each fiscal year, as a percent of GDP.
Deficits shown as positive numbers; surplus years fall below zero.
OMB's receipts and outlays as a percent of GDP, including the Depression and World War II. Figures before 1933 use an older budget concept.
All figures are percent of GDP. The last column is the FY 2056 projection minus the 50-year average, in percentage points.
| Measure | 50-year average | FY 2025 (actual) | FY 2036 | FY 2056 | FY 2056 vs. average |
|---|
Historical figures come from CBO's Historical Budget Data (February 2026), tables 1a through 5a, and OMB's Historical Tables, Table 1.2 (FY 2027 Budget). Both workbooks were converted to data files for this dashboard; the numbers are unchanged.
The 50-year averages cover the latest 50 years of actual data in CBO's file. They will roll forward automatically if a newer file is attached. Major health care follows CBO's historical definition: Medicare net of premiums, plus Medicaid, CHIP and marketplace subsidies.
Projected years come from CBO's long-term outlook file, which rounds to one decimal place.
To keep debt held by the public at its FY 2025 level of — of GDP through FY 2056, CBO's baseline implies a permanent change of about — of GDP a year starting in FY 2027, through higher revenues, lower spending or both. That is roughly — in FY 2027 alone. Bringing debt back to its 50-year average of — would take about — of GDP a year. Spread evenly, holding debt steady means raising every tax and cutting every area of spending other than interest by about —.
An illustration built on CBO's numbers, not a CBO estimate. It keeps economic growth and interest rates on CBO's baseline path, so it leaves out the ways lower debt could feed back into the economy.
Move each slider to change that tax or spending area by a percentage of what CBO projects. Changes apply every year from FY 2027 on.
Try a goal (every tax raised and every spending area cut by the same percentage):
Your plan, compared with CBO's baseline (in parentheses).
Debt held by the public
Net interest
Deficit
Interest saved
As a percent of GDP. Dashed lines mark the FY 2025 level and the 50-year average.
As a percent of GDP, including interest savings. Below zero is a surplus.
The permanent change, revenues and spending combined, that brings debt to each target by FY 2056. Dollar figures and percentages are at FY 2027 levels.
| Goal | Timing | Change needed (% of GDP) | In FY 2027 dollars ($ billions) | Every tax up and every program cut by | As a revenue increase | As a cut to noninterest spending |
|---|
It starts from CBO's baseline in the 30-year outlook file. Each year's average interest rate on the debt is implied by CBO's numbers: net interest divided by the previous year's debt (about 3.4% in FY 2026, rising to about 4.2% by FY 2056).
Your changes start in FY 2027, either all at once or ramped up evenly over 5 or 10 years. Each year's savings reduce borrowing, and the smaller debt then carries less interest at that year's rate, so savings compound.
What it leaves out: lower deficits could raise economic growth and lower interest rates, and large tax increases or spending cuts could slow the economy in the short run. Those effects are excluded, which is why this is an illustration rather than a CBO estimate.
Each slider changes that line by a percentage of CBO's projection in every year. The estimates are static: a 10% higher tax raises 10% more revenue, with no change in how people work, invest or import. In practice behavior shifts, so tax increases usually raise somewhat less than this, and very large tariff increases far less. Medicare is net of premiums, as in CBO's long-term outlook.
CBO's 30-year file doesn't split defense from nondefense discretionary spending. The calculator uses each one's share from the 10-year baseline through FY 2036 (48–49% defense) and holds the FY 2036 share after that.
Over the next 30 years, debt held by the public — from — of GDP in FY 2026 to — in FY 2056. The primary deficit, which leaves out interest, goes from — of GDP to —, while net interest — from — to —.
CBO's long-term projections under current law, FY 2026–2056. All years are projections.
Debt held by the public, FY 2056
— of GDP
—
Net interest, FY 2056
— of GDP
vs. — for Social Security
Deficit, FY 2056
— of GDP
from — in FY 2026
As a percent of GDP, end of each fiscal year.
The gap between total spending and spending other than interest is net interest.
Each year's deficit split into the primary deficit and net interest, as a percent of GDP.
As a percent of GDP. Medicare here is net of premiums and other offsetting receipts, as CBO reports it in the long-term outlook.
| Year | Revenues | Social Security | Medicare | Medicaid, CHIP & ACA credits | Other mandatory | Discretionary | Noninterest spending | Net interest | Total spending | Primary deficit | Total deficit | Debt held by the public |
|---|
| Year | Revenues | Social Security | Medicare | Medicaid, CHIP & ACA credits | Other mandatory | Discretionary | Noninterest spending | Net interest | Total spending | Primary deficit | Total deficit | Debt held by the public | GDP |
|---|
Source: CBO's long-term budget projections accompanying the February 2026 baseline, as compiled in the attached file. The first ten years match the 10-year baseline on the other tabs; years after FY 2036 extend current law under CBO's long-term economic assumptions.
The primary deficit is the deficit excluding net interest. The share of the deficit that is interest is calculated here from the file's dollar figures (net interest divided by the total deficit).